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高宇宁副教授做客CGTN谈中美贸易谈判新进展

日期: 2019-10-23
浏览次数: 25

高宇宁副教授做客CGTN谈中美贸易谈判新进展

10月16日,清华大学公共管理学院华宇讲席副教授、国情研究院副研究员高宇宁做客CGTN世界观察(World Insight)栏目,就中美贸易谈判最新进展与栏目主持人田薇进行了探讨。参与访谈的嘉宾还有:来自华盛顿的美中商会商业咨询服务主管Anna Ashton女士,和来自梅德福的塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法学院Joel Trachtman教授。

高宇宁副教授做客CGTN谈中美贸易谈判新进展

在采访中,高宇宁副教授指出,中美贸易谈判将会是一个持续的过程。关于此次谈判达成的协议,与美方宣传的“第一阶段成果”不同,中方认为书面协议才会有保证,因此国内更多的是适度讨论。中方希望在下一步谈判时彼此之间能够达成一些协议,这也是各方所期待的。对于中美两国领导人在即将举办的APEC会议上签署某些协议的可能性,他强调能在APEC会议上签署协议,这是各方一直所期待的,签署协议是一切谈判的出发点。双方能够达成一致,相向而行,这是一个好的发展态势。


高宇宁副教授谈到,中美谈判的议题虽然看似在变动,但谈判总是先从最容易达成共识的领域开始。在美国制定的关于中国清单中,多样化的种类使得美国团队难以确切找到一种能够作为第一阶段谈判重点关注的商品或领域,然而在中国的清单中,美国的农业是一个明确并具有较大影响的领域,因此在第一阶段中,美国农业是理想的谈判领域。这次在农业领域达成的协定是一个好开端。
高宇宁副教授做客CGTN谈中美贸易谈判新进展
针对谈判中关于中国金融部门的议题,高宇宁副教授强调,中国金融部门开放甚至比贸易谈判本身更重要。开放意味着这将会是过去三十年来外国投资者遇到的最大一次投资机遇,无论是中国证监会的新规还是李克强总理10月15日签署的关于外资保险业和外资银行业有关条例都印证了这一点。根据中国国家资产负债表数据,中国金融部门总资产和非金融企业总资产旗鼓相当。这意味着一个占据中国经济半壁江山的新市场将对外国投资者开放,而他们像三十年前一样,已经在新市场即将开放的大门口等候。
对于未来中美贸易谈判过程的不确定性,高宇宁副教授分析了其中的原因:一方面是两国的谈判文化差异所致,中国人喜欢从易到难,循序渐进,而美国人对此并不认同;另一方面,从长期来看,即便贸易本身是一个不确定的因素,对于中美而言,美国公司仍然有巨额的营业收入来自在中国境内的产品销售,远大于美国直接出口至中国的贸易额。他认为即使未来贸易波动,中美贸易关系仍具有某种根本性的保证。
对全球供应链可能带来的影响,高宇宁副教授指出,跨国公司应该能够应对这种中期或长期的变化,但他们无法承受诸如(美国的)实体清单这类政策在短期内造成全球供应链中断所带来的冲击。作为世界第一第二大经济体,中美两国有责任保证全球供应链不被突然中断,以确保跨国公司可以拥有一个值得信赖的环境。 

英文全文实录如下

(Q为主持人提问,A为高宇宁副教授的回答,限于篇幅另外两位嘉宾的发言在此省略)



Q: From your perspective, how should we read the statements coming from both sides? For the US side, it’s so called “the first phase”, however from the Chinese side, there is a lack of a specific phase like this. So, what does that mean?


A: I think maybe both sides you support a sustention, but actually, from China side, only written word is guaranteed, so now there is only moderated talk about that. We’re still waiting for if for the next step we can guarantee some agreements between both sides, and that’s actually the thing I think everybody is expecting.


Q: And of course, it needs a lot of works, you know, written down words, that takes a lot of time and also real detailed negotiation. People are talking about in APEC whether two leaders would be able to sign something. Is it too early or too fast, Mr. Gao?


A: I don’t think it’s so called too early, but actually I think it’s expected, because at least, you know, to kick off an agreement is the starting of everything. So now let’s say we have a starting to agree from both sides, that means that’s a correct direction. Both sides working finally has an agreement when the two leaders meet. That means we are preparing for this kind of agreement, so there are a lot of detailed work needed to be done. Actually at least, we have a very good kick-off agreement.


Q: It seems interesting, Mr. Gao, that we are moving the target, because at the very beginning, as Ms. Asthton put, the nature of discussion, at least from the US business perspective, is not necessary about certain areas that become the focus of both the media and public now between the two countries and in terms of the economic ties What goanna happened when tensions being put on by both side to one another at different time and tariff against each other as a result of lack of progress of the negotiations. Are we further away where we started? Will things remain that way or even going further down the road that starts from the very beginning to the new phase?


A: From my perspective, that’s not a diversity by of new target, because we are at “Phase One”, so actually we should do the easiest negotiation first. When you compare the two list of China and US side, the goods from China is quite diversifiable so you can’t find something, just one thing that you can serve as the most important item for the “Phase One”, but from US side, agricultural is the ideal item for the “Phase One” that is clear, straight and very good for negotiation. I think this is actually a good start and we actually kick off that negotiation from agricultural. I think that’s a good kick off.

Q: Mr. Gao, Whether some of the fundamental issues regarded by Professor Trachtman are exactly the fundamental issues that are negotiated coming from the US side in the negotiation towards the Chinese team? Because obviously we see quite difference among very different factors inside United States is what is the priority, but eventually you have to negotiate with the negotiation team and you have to deal with the priority that they outline as the priority.Mr. Gao, Whether some of the fundamental issues regarded by Professor Trachtman are exactly the fundamental issues that are negotiated coming from the US side in the negotiation towards the Chinese team? Because obviously we see quite difference among very different factors inside United States is what is the priority, but eventually you have to negotiate with the negotiation team and you have to deal with the priority that they outline as the priority
A: I think actually the opening of China’s financial sector is at least as equal important as trade negotiation, or even more important. This is maybe the biggest opportunity for foreign investors, maybe during the past three decades, and now we are welcoming a new three decade. I think not only because the CSRC has these kinds of new rules, but also yesterday our Prime Minister Li Keqiang signed the new rules for the foreign invested insurance companies and commercial banks. Now if you go to check the China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the non-financial proportion of total assert is kind of equal to the financial companies, I think this is the opening up of another half of China, a new china. So, for all foreign investors, they are actually standing in front of the gate of the opening up of the new China just like three decades ago. So, I think this is a kind of biggest thing for all investors.


Q: Mr. Gao, unpredictability is the key word, I guess, for the negotiations throughout the past fifteen months. For different reasons, I guess, for different sides, for the US side, it’s about whether China has committed to what US believe that China would do, but for the Chinese side, it’s a very different story: whether what is already be committed are going to be done by the US side, whether they would still sign on things that they early have agreed clearly to sign on, whether their negotiator will change and whether the nature of the negotiation will change. So there a lot of variables in the negotiation and unpredictability is the nature of these negotiations, not to mention the nature of the US-China relation. So, in a picture, Mr. Gao, how do you see the US-China trade will bring in for the immediate future for example before the election season in the United States? More predictability or more unpredictability? Its impact on the rest of the relationship would be more positive or not necessarily?


A: I can touch this question from two points. The first is that, the cultures of negotiation from the both sides are quite different. Chinese would like to start with the easiest things first but the US don’t think so, But I think for the long run, even the trade itself is not a certain issue, we should remember that between US-China side, there is still a large amount of revenue from the US companies who sell their product inside China. That’s also, you know, an even bigger number than they directly export to China. So, I think actually for the future, even the trade itself is fluctuant, but there is something more important to guarantee the both sides relationship, hence some fundamental guarantee.

Q: As for the immediately effect on global supply chain because of US-China uncertainty relationship, Mr. Gao, what do you think about that global supply chain? I know you are being doing research about that for some quite time.
A: Yes, for the uncertainty about the trade negotiation, if that’s a medium term or long-term change. I think that’s a kind of ok for the multination companies, but now, we see that for example the policy to the entity list and something like that actually size the global supply chain certainly and that actually no multination company can carry that kind of sudden change. So, I think for the US and China which are the largest and second largest economy of the world, we actually have the responsibility to guarantee the global supply chain will not be suddenly stopped and to guarantee that multination companies can have a trusted environment.



文字|程耕耘



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